Measuring Macroeconomic Disagreement
Ben Wang（Macquarie University）
腾讯会议ID：860 602 216
We propose a new measure of macroeconomic disagreement, using dispersions of forecasts of a wide range of financial, activity and inflation variables from both household and professional surveys at various frequencies. With a mixed-frequency state-space model, we construct macroeconomic disagreement estimates of the one-year ahead expected state of the economy. Impulse responses show disagreement shocks lead to a contraction in economic activity, and monetary policy expansion reduces disagreement, implying that endogenous disagreement is an additional channel to the real economy for countercyclical monetary policy.
Ben Wang is a senior lecturer at Macquarie University, where he also serves as the corporate engagement coordinator for the Department of Economics. He is also a council member for the Economic Society Australia (NSW branch) and Chinese Economics Society Australia. His work focuses on applied macroeconomics, with recent interests on measuring and evaluating the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty, housing market dynamics, and the role of media news in driving households' expectations. He has also worked on interdisciplinary topics that are related to socioeconomic disadvantaged groups. He has published in a wide range of academic journals including Macroeconomic Dynamics, Journal of Macroeconomics, Economic Record, Social Indicator Research and Journal of Business Ethics, and has been a guest editor for China Economic Review and Social Indicator Research. Ben has also obtained major funding, currently including a Australian Research Council Discover Project and a DAAD collaboration project.